[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 14 10:35:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: AR1112 remains stable with small chance of C-class X-ray
flares Newly arrived AR1113 on the limb is producing B class
flares. IMF Bz was close to zero for much of the UT day, not
conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field. The solar wind
veolcity Vsw steadily declined to 320 km/s. A CME observed early
on the 11th Oct associated with the eruptive filament close to
AR1112 has an estimated velocity from STEREO of 400km/sec suggesting
it will pass Earth early in the UT day on the 15th. Spacecraft
observations suggest the CME front edge may strike a glancing
blow but as there is no Forbush decrease in cosmic ray flux the
CME is not strongly Earth directed. The filament near AR1112
may be a source of further CMEs. A small coronal hole on the
limb just ahead of AR1113 may be geoeffective in a week.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 4 12211112
Townsville 13 333333-2
Learmonth 4 22211111
Canberra 2 11201001
Hobart 3 22201100
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3331 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at all latitudes
IMF Bz was close to zero for much of the UT day, not conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field. The solar wind veolcity
Vsw steadily declined to 320 km/s so not affecting the magnetic
activity. A CME in flight has an estimated velocity from STEREO
spacecraft of 400km/sec suggesting it will pass Earth distance
early in the UT day on the 15th. Spacecraft observations suggest
the CME front edge may strike a glancing blow, but as there is
no Forbush decrease in cosmic ray flux the CME is not strongly
Earth directed. A small coronal hole on the limb just ahead of
AR1113 may be geoeffective in a week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 15 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct 25 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 20 about 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 13 October
and is current for interval 13-14 October. MUFs at mid and low
latitudes continued to be strongly depressed over the UT day
as a result of the brief geomagnetic disturbance early in the
local morning of the 12th. Recovery to near monthly values in
the next day should be helped by low geomagnetic activity and
a new active region on the solar disc with more ionising radiation.
Another CME may strike a glancing blow during local day on the
15th with possible ionospheric depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 84100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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