[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 10

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Darwin               6   22221222
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth            7   22132221
      Canberra             3   11121111
      Hobart               5   21221211
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Oct     6    Quiet 
18 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Niue Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    13800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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