[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 11 10:30:16 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Small chance of C-class flares from region 1112 (S18E58).
No ACE solar wind data 2330-0615 UT. Solar wind parameters thereafter
were undisturbed although there were some prolonged periods of
southward IMF. Solar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed
today due to the passage of the CME on the 6 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21121212
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 4 31011211
Canberra 2 20011101
Hobart 1 10011101
Casey(Ant) 8 33221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 9 Quiet to unsettled. Probable isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
12 Oct 7 Quiet to unsettled
13 Oct 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
13 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00, 09-19, 23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
02-05 UT and enhancements to 30% 11-15 UT at Darwin.
Depressions to 20% 02-05 and 12-14 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
02-07 and 12-15 UT at Brisbane, 02-06, 10-14 and 20-23
UT at Norfolk Is. Spread F observed 11-19 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
12 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values.
13 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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