[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 10 10:30:03 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              80/20

COMMENT: New region 1112 is located at S18E65. Solar wind velocity 
ranged between 330 and 400 km/s while the north/south IMF ranged 
between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to become 
disturbed on day two due to the effects of the CME on the 6 Oct. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           7   32222111
      Learmonth            3   110122--
      Canberra             0   00010100
      Hobart               3   11121201
      Casey(Ant)           7   3342101-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   3111 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct     5    Quiet 
11 Oct     9    Quiet to unsettled. Probable isolated active 
                periods at high latitudes. 
12 Oct     7    Mostly quiet. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
11 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Oct    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressions to 20% 00-08, 14, 21 UT, depressions to
      40% 15-20 UT, near predicted monthly values at other
      times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced 00-13
      UT, then depressed to 30% 14-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      03-05 and 15-22 UT at Darwin and Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      03-08 and 19-22 UT at Brisbane, and 25% 03-22 UT at
      Norfolk Is. Spread F observed 12-19 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      10, 13-18 UT at Macquarie Is.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
11 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
12 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    62600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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