[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 12 10:13:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Small chance of C-class X-ray flares from Active Region
AR1112. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed on the 6 Oct
was detected in-flight to Earth by a minor Forbush decrease event
in Antarctic cosmic ray data. The CME arrived at Earth as a weak
Sudden Impulse (SI) at 1235UT, preceded by a strong north-south
IMF Bz swing ~0730UT. Bz remained southwards for over 10 hours
until ~1800UT including prolonged periods near -10nT. This increased
the geoeffectivess of the weak SI as the IMF merged with the
geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 18 22345333
Darwin 17 12345332
Townsville 23 33345443
Learmonth 21 12346332
Canberra 14 01335332
Hobart 19 12335443
Casey(Ant) 19 3-444233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose from Quiet to Active and Minor
Storm levels at ~1300UT due to a weak Sudden Impulse (SI) observed
by the ACE spacecraft at 1235UT. The SI was preceded by a strong
north-south IMF Bz swing ~0730UT. Bz remained southwards for
over 10 hours until ~1800UT including prolonged periods near
-10nT. This increased the geoeffectivess of the weak SI as the
IMF merged with the geomagnetic field. This SI resulted from
a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed on the 6 Oct. Conditions
have returned to Quiet and should remain so for ~3 days in the
absence of prolonged Bz southwards or a fast Earth directed CME.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1235UT on 11 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
13 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
14 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs at mid-latitudes were mostly near monthly averages
but the geomagnetic disturbance near 13UT caused disturbances
at southern and equatorial latitudes in the early morning hours.
Conditions now returning to normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list