[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 11 10:30:05 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              85/27

COMMENT: Region 1121 (S19W04) has declined, 1122 (N14W53) is 
stable and new regions 1123 (S23E16) and 1124 (N14E38) were numbered. 
Regions 1121 and 1123 were the most active, producing a number 
of sub-flares. There is a slight chance of an M-class flare. 
STEREO images show a CME from the northern hemisphere around 
0800 UT and possibly another from the southern hemisphere around 
1500 UT. Solar wind parameters became mildly disturbed after 
1600 UT with the north-south IMF component ranging between +8 
and -10 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed days one and two, increasing in activity day three due
to the effects of the CME on 9 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11110223
      Darwin               6   22111223
      Townsville           4   11110222
      Learmonth            4   11000223
      Canberra             2   01000112
      Hobart               2   00100122
      Casey(Ant)          10   23321133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1211 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     5    Quiet 
12 Nov     5    Quiet 
13 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active levels day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Nov    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly with depressions to 25%, 03-05
      and 15-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%,
      00-03 and 22-23 UT at Darwin and 00, 19 and 21-23 UT
      at Townsville. Enhancements to 50% 10-14 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      at Perth, 01-09 UT and 21-23 UT at Norfolk Is. Spread
      F at Hobart 10-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%,
      15-17 UT at Macquarie Is. and 30% 22-23 UT at Scott
      Base.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    49800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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