[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 12 10:33:09 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 84/26
COMMENT: Region 1123 (S22E03) produced a number of C-class events,
largest a C4.7, with nearby region 1121 (S20W13) contributing
a C1.1 event and region 1124 (N14E19) also active. Region 1125
(N19E34) was numbered. There is a slight chance of M-class flares.
STEREO images show a number of fast moving CMEs from the southern
hemisphere, presumably related to activity from regions 1121/1123.
Solar wind parameters continued to be disturbed with speed increasing
to 500 km/s and the north-south IMF component ranging between
+11 and -10 nT. The disturbance appears to be CME related. Solar
wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over the forecast
period due to the effects of CMEs from 08/09 and 11th, and an
equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 32233323
Darwin 11 32233232
Townsville 11 32233322
Learmonth 12 32233332
Canberra 10 22233223
Hobart 11 22233323
Casey(Ant) 16 44433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 0123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
13 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels
mostly at high latitudes.
14 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
Minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
18-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
19-20 UT at Darwin and to 35% 19-23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
19-23 UT at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. and 15-16 and 23
UT at Hobart. Night spread F observed at Hobart 14-18 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
mostly 06-22 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
13 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
14 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 22200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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