[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 10 10:30:17 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26

COMMENT: Region 1121 (S19E08) has further decreased in area while 
region 1122 (N13W43) has increased in area. There is the slight
possibility of an M-class flare. STEREO images show a CME around
08/2300 UT which may result in disturbance around 13 Nov. Solar
wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            3   11111112
      Canberra             2   21011000
      Hobart               2   12111000
      Casey(Ant)           6   34421121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0010 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     6    Quiet 
11 Nov     5    Quiet 
12 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Occasional unsettled periods possible day one. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Nov    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions  to 25%
      02-05 UT. No data 13-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      18-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      00-01, 15-17 and 23 UT at Darwin and 00-01 and 22-23 UT
      at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      00-01, 17-21 and 23 UT at Brisbane and 00-06 UT at
      Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      13-17 UT at Macquarie Is. and to 20% 10-11 UT at Casey.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% probable at all latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 296 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    44600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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