[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 17 09:25:54 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day
today. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 
380 to 340 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of 
the IMF stayed between +/-3 nT for most parts of the day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111211
      Darwin               3   22100111
      Townsville          13   33322333
      Learmonth            4   12111211
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   01001110
      Casey(Ant)           5   13201211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     4    Quiet 
18 May     3    Quiet 
19 May     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with periods 
of MUF depressions at times mainly on low and mid-laitude 
locations. The resons for these depressions are not fully 
understood at this stage but very low solar activity seems 
to be one of them. Appearance of sporadic E-layers also 
affected HF conditions on low and some mid latitude locations. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day to
      near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day to 
      near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 
      20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
18 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
19 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were 
observed in the Aus/NZ regions today. The reasons for these 
MUF depressions are not fully understood at this stage but
very low solar activity seems to be one of the possible reasons. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 
three days in this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    88000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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