[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 16 09:49:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day today.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 400 to 330 km/s
during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF stayed between
+/-3 nT for most parts of the day. The previously predicted coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream effect remained weaker than
expected. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually further
weaken to more normal levels on 16 May and then remain at normal
levels on 17 and 18 May. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 12 33322233
Learmonth 2 11021000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11011000
Casey(Ant) 3 23111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 5 Quiet
17 May 4 Quiet
18 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with isolated unsettled periods on some locations.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance
of sporadic E-layers affected communications conditions on
low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted montly values to depressed
by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 11 near predicted monthly values
17 May 12 near predicted monthly values
18 May 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 64000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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