[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 5 09:31:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with most
activity including a C class flare from a new region AR1069.
Solar wind speed decreased slightly to 600km/s as the coronal
hole rotates out of geoeffective position. IMF Bz oscillated
north-south between +/-5nT and no significant southward periods.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over the next
3 days with more C-class flares from region 1069.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 13 32343223
Darwin 12 32342223
Townsville 11 31242223
Learmonth 12 22343223
Canberra 8 21242212
Hobart 8 322-3212
Casey(Ant) 14 3-323423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 87 (Minor storm)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27 5544 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 12 Unsettled
06 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Generally Unsettled activity observed over the last
24 hours at mid-latitudes due to the effect of the 2 May co-rotating
interaction region and the ongoing high solar wind speed. 9-12UT
had Active conditions across most latitudes, increasing to Minor
Storm towards Hobart and Antarctica indicating a polar disturbance.
The coronal hole is rotating out of geoeffective position and
solar wind speed is decreasing so activity will decrease to generally
Quiet by tomorrow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 20 near predicted monthly values
06 May 20 near predicted monthly values
07 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions at southern Australian latitudes enhanced
at night due to geomagnetic activity from coronal hole. Mostly
depressed at equatorial latitudes with short enhancements (1-2hrs)
near dusk and dawn. Expected to return to normal during the next
day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 677 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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