[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 4 08:54:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B class events. Solar wind speed increased from 600km/s
to 700km/s over the UT day. There are four numbered regions currently
on the disc. Regions 1065 (S32W16) and 1066 (S27E16) formed on
the disk as single, unipolar spot groups. Region 1067 (N23E56)
rotated on the disk as a bi-polar spot group. Geomagnetic activity
has been caused by a co-rotating interaction region ahead of
the high speed solar wind stream from the current geoeffective
coronal hole. IMF Bz oscillated north-south between +/-5nT for
the first half of the UT day but has since settled into a mildly
southward (0 to -5nT) condition since, suggestiong geoeffective
configuration. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low
over the next 3 days with possible C-class events from region
1067.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 18 33344333
Darwin 15 23343333
Townsville 15 33343332
Learmonth 20 33345333
Canberra 13 -3343222
Hobart 16 23443332
Casey(Ant) 23 35434-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 130 (Severe storm)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 118 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 39 1124 6665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 17 Unsettled to active
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active activity observed over the last 24 hours
at mid-latitudes with isolated Minor Storm levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of the high
speed coronal hole wind stream from the current geoeffective
coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions are possible for
the next day
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Poor-fair Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 20 near predicted monthly values
05 May 20 near predicted monthly values
06 May 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions enhanced due to geomagnetic activity from
coronal hole. Expected to return to normal during the next day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 249000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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