[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 2 09:52:04 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C5.7 class flare at 0139UT originating from a region near the
NE limb. Solar wind speed declined from 400km/s at 00UT to be
300km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed s expected
to increase on 03May due to a high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. Bz ranged between +/-3nT over the UT
day. Solar activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days
with further C-class events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 4 21111211
Townsville 4 --21-211
Learmonth 4 21022210
Canberra 1 00011100
Hobart 2 11012100
Casey(Ant) 4 22111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 12 Unsettled
04 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic activity observed over the last 24
hours. Quiet conditions expected for 02May. Unsettled conditions
expected for 03May-04May, with Active periods due to the recurrent
coronal hole effects and possible minor storm conditions for
high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 20 near predicted monthly values
03 May 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 May 10 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours. Notable sporadic-E conditions observed for Northern
AUS stations during local day and Southern AUS/NZ stations between
07UT-12UT. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity from 03May with
possible MUF depressions of 10%-20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed ionospheric conditions for for high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list