[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 1 09:54:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C2.0 class flare at 1935UT originating from a region near the
NE limb. Solar wind speed ranged between 370km/s at 00UT to be
400km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-3nT.
Solar activity is expected to range from Very Low to Low for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 4 11212111
Learmonth 4 11112211
Canberra 0 00001100
Hobart 2 11002100
Casey(Ant) 5 3-211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3300 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 5 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic activity observed over the last 24
hours. Quiet conditions expected for 01May-02May with Unsettled
conditions and possible Active periods on 03May due to the anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 20 near predicted monthly values
02 May 20 near predicted monthly values
03 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours with depressed periods during local night for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions. Notable sporadic-E conditions observed
for Northern AUS stations during local day. Disturbed periods
for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next 2 days with an expected increase in geomagnetic activity
from 03May and possible MUF depressions of 10%-20% for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric conditions for for high
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 85100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list