[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 10
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 3 09:55:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B class events. Solar wind speed increased gradually
from 350km/s at 10UT to be ~600km/s at the time of this report.
ACE satellite data showed solar wind temperature increased gradually
with velocity while the density increased to levels greater than
10 p/cm2 between 05UT-11UT indicating a co-rotating interaction
region ahead of the anticipated high speed solar wind stream
from the current geoeffective coronal. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain at elevated levels for the next 2 days.
Bz ranged between +/-5nT from 00UT-09UT whereupon it increased
in magnitude to 18nT while being predominently southward during
the period between 09UT-15UT. Bz then decreased in magnitude
to be -8nT at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days with possible C-class
events from region 1067.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 16 12234443
Darwin 16 12234443
Townsville 13 12234333
Learmonth 20 12234454
Canberra 10 01133333
Hobart 15 02234443
Casey(Ant) 13 2-3333-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gnangara 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 0201 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 16 active
04 May 15 Unsettled to Active
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity observed over the
last 24 hours with isolated Minor Storm levels for high latitudes
due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region ahead
of the expected high speed coronal hole wind stream from the
current geoeffective coronal hole. Active conditions with isolated
minor storm levels for high latitudes expected for 03May while
Unsettled to Active conditions for 04May. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected 05May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 May 10 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
05 May 10 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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