[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 16 09:46:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from 370 km/s at 00UT to ~540km/s
at 19UT due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream
from the current transequatorial geoeffective coronal hole. IMF
Bz varied between +/-5nT during the last 24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22231222
Darwin 6 12221222
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 8 12231322
Canberra 4 31120111
Hobart 5 11131212
Casey(Ant) 7 22221322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2212 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 12 Unsettled
17 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for 16Jun with
possible isolated Active periods due to coronal hole effects.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 17Jun-18Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions and notable sporadic E for low to mid latitudes.
Ionospheric support expected to be below monthly averages across
the region due to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity.
Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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