[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 17 09:51:05 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day at ~550km/s 
due to the current high speed solar wind stream from a 
transequatorial geoeffective coronal hole. IMF Bz varied between
+/-7nT with some sustained southward periods. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33333332
      Darwin              14   33333332
      Townsville          16   33343333
      Learmonth           15   33333432
      Canberra            10   22333321
      Hobart              14   22334431
      Casey(Ant)          14   334232-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1223 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes with isolated Active 
periods. Unsettled to Active conditions for high latitudes with 
an isolated Minor Storm period in the latter half of the UT day. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 2 days with 
isolated Active periods for mid to high latitudes. Mostly Quiet 
conditions expected for 19Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
18 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions during local day. Enhanced conditions for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions during local night and disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Notable sporadic E for low to mid latitudes. Ionospheric 
support expected to be below monthly averages across the region 
due to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions 
of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes during local day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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