[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 15 09:53:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
a C1.5 class event from region 1081. Solar wind speed decreased
from 410km/s to be 370 km/s at the time of this report. Possible
increase in solar wind speed midway through the UT day on 15
June due to a large coronal hole, extending into both the north
and south hemispheres. IMF Bz varied between +/-2nT during the
last 24 hours. Expect solar activity to be at Very Low to Low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11221011
Darwin 2 11220001
Townsville 11 23332223
Learmonth 4 122200--
Canberra 1 00120001
Hobart 1 10120000
Casey(Ant) 3 21211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 12 Unsettled
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 June and
is current for interval 15 June only. Quiet Geomagnetic conditions
observed over the last 24 hours. Expect initially Quiet conditions
15Jun changing to Unsettled with possible Active periods.Returning
to Mostly quiet near the end of the UT day on 16 June. Mostly
Quiet conditions for 17JUn.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS an
Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours with notable sporadic
E. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and
Antarctic regions. Similar conditions expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 86000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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