[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 18 09:29:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Region 1087 (N23W33) produced a C2.4 flare at 1801 UT. The
region has decreased in size but there is still the possibility
of a C-class event. The solar wind speed decreased to 320 km/s
while the north-south component of the IMF ranged between +/-2 nT.
Solar wind parameters are expected to be undisturbed over the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 10010001
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 1 10011001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 2 11110101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 15-35% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed. Sporadic E observed 13-17 UT
and some night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 10-25% depressed. Sporadic E observed at Darwin
09-21 UT and Townsville 07-12 UT. Spread F observed at
Townsville 13-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 20% depressed 00-07 UT, then near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. Night spread F
observed at all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
20 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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