[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Region 1087 (N24W48) has further decreased in size and 
complexity. There is a small possibility of 1087 producing a 
C-class event. The solar wind speed decreased from 325 to 290 
km/s while the north-south component of the IMF ranged between 
+/-2 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be undisturbed 
over the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11200100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     5    Quiet 
20 Jul     5    Quiet 
21 Jul     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
20 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
21 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jul    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 04-07
      and 11-13 UT. Depressions to 25% at other times.
      Sporadic E observed 14-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 10-30% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 10-25% depressed. Spread F observed 14-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Spread
      observed during night time.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
20 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
21 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    21900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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