[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 17 09:30:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Region 1087 (N20W19) appears stable in size and has the
slight chance of producing a C-class event. The solar wind speed
ranged between 420 to 380 km/s while the north-south component of
the IMF ranged between +/-5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be undisturbed over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121101
      Darwin               3   11121101
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            3   11122001
      Canberra             1   00120000
      Hobart               2   00131000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   4312 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
19 Jul     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
18 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
19 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      05-07 UT. Depressions to 30% 11-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00, 04, 07-13 and 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      04-11, 20-21 UT at Darwin. Night spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25%. Enhanced to 20% 11-19 UT at Hobart,
      Norfolk Is. and Sydney. Night spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
18 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
19 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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