[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 6 09:53:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
A slight increase in the GOES background solar x ray flux observed
from 18UT. Solar wind speed declined from 500km/s at 00UT to
be ~430km/s at the time of this report. IMF Bz ranged between
+/-2nT. LASCO imagery indicated a CME from behind the NE limb
from 1942UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12122111
Darwin 3 12112001
Townsville 12 33333222
Learmonth 3 11122101
Canberra 1 01012000
Hobart 2 11112000
Casey(Ant) 5 12222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 4 Quiet
07 Jul 4 Quiet
08 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with solar wind speed declining. Regional geomagnetic
field was Quiet with isolated Unsettled intervals at high latitudes.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to 25% observed during
both local day and night for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
and notable sporadic E between 08-12UT. Mostly normal ionospheric
support for Southern AUS/NZ regions and a generally weak ionosphere
observed for Antarctic regions. Expect similar variable MUF
depressions over the next 3 days due to low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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