[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 7 09:53:23 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
A long duration B-class flare peaked at 0312UT/06 July. This 
flare was associated with a CME from the NW limb. This CME is 
not earthward directed. Another B1 flare from region 1086 was 
observed at 1011UT/06 July. Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from 420 to 350 km/s (approx) during the UT day today 
and the Bz component of the IMF stayed between +/-2nT for most 
parts of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very 
low levels for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville          10   23322223
      Learmonth            1   22000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     4    Quiet 
08 Jul     3    Quiet 
09 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with solar wind speed declining. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
08 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
09 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed on
most locations on 06 July. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next three days as the ionospheric ionisation 
continues to remain weak due to continued very low solar 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Jul    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 
      15%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul    10    Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly. 
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 20% observed 
during both local day and night for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions with notable sporadic E at times. Ionosphere continues 
to remain weakly ionised due to very low solar activity. Expect 
similar variable MUF depressions over the next 3 days due to low
EUV/ionisation. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    67400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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