[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 5 09:26:09 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar X-ray activity remains very low. There was a brief
spike in energetic proton fluxes observed 11-14 UT at the ACE
satellite platform. This was possibly resultant from the CME's
observed Jul 03. Solar wind speed declined steadily from 600
to 500 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 14 33332333
Learmonth 4 11121211
Canberra 3 1-------
Hobart 2 11120100
Casey(Ant) 6 23211212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2302 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 4 Quiet
07 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters declined steadily over the UT
day. The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled
intervals at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions should decline
to generally quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to 25% observed throughout
the region, mainly during local day. Spread-F conditions and
generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. Expect
continuing variable MUF depressions throughout the region due to
low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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