[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 29 10:30:57 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              76/14

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s over the 
past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component 
ranged between +/-5 nT. Region 1041 (S26 W32) produced occasional 
B-class x-ray events over the past 24 hours. There is only a 
slight possibility of this region producing a C-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122121
      Darwin               3   11111121
      Townsville           4   11112121
      Learmonth            5   21122121
      Canberra             1   00011110
      Hobart               4   11111221
      Casey(Ant)           8   2-332121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1001 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     5    Quiet 
30 Jan     5    Quiet 
31 Jan     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 60%
      10-20 UT. Sporadic E observed 09-11 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
      to 15% at Darwin and to 20% at Townsville 01-07 UT.
      Enhancements to 45% 08-10, 12-14 and 17-21 UT at
      Townsville. Sporadic E observed 09-21 UT at Darwin and
      00-02, 04 and 10-12 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 15% at Brisbane, Hobart and Norfolk Is.
      Sporadic E observed 00-15, 19 and 22 UT at Brisbane,
      00-07, 14-16, 19 and 22-23 UT at Norfolk Is., 00-02,
      11-16 and 19-22 UT at Canberra and Sydney and 00-07,
      10-18 and 20-23 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      mostly 07-16 and 20-22 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs likely as solar flux/activity
decreases. Sporadic E may affect F region communications at
times, mostly during daylight. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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