[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 30 10:40:26 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               74/11              76/14

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 375 km/s over the 
past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component 
ranged between +/-5 nT. Region 1041 (S27 W42) appears stable 
while the background x-ray flux level declines. There is only 
a slight possibility of this region producing a C-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet. Mostly
quiet to unsettled at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111012
      Darwin               2   21110011
      Townsville           5   12111023
      Learmonth            4   22112002
      Canberra             1   01010002
      Hobart               2   11110012
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-331112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan     5    Quiet 
31 Jan     5    Quiet 
01 Feb     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jan     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 50%
      11-17 UT and depressions to 10% 08-09 UT. Sporadic E
      observed 06-12, 19 and 21-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data 00-20 UT. Depressed to 25% otherwise.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35% 07-19
      UT and depressions to 30% 03, 06 and 20-21 UT at
      Darwin. Depressions to 30% 01-06 and 15-16 UT at
      Townsville. Sporadic E observed 05 and 19-23 UT and
      night spread F at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      mostly 00-08 UT. Night spread F at all stations.
      Sporadic E observed mostly 00-15 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%. No data for Macquarie Is. 05-23
      UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs likely as solar flux/activity decreases. 
Sporadic E may affect F region communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    55000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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