[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 28 10:31:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained mostly below 370 km/s
over the past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged between +/-5 nT. Region 1041 (S25 W16) produced
two B-class x-ray events over the past 24 hours, while region 1042
has rotated off the visible disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111102
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 2 01010012
Learmonth 3 11121201
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2110 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
11-18 UT. Sporadic E observed 01-03 and 19-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
10-14 UT. Sporadic E observed 07-14 UT. No data 15-23
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions to 15% at Townsville, 01-02, 13 and 15
UT. Sporadic E observed 13 and 15-22 UT at Darwin, and
00-04, 07, 10 and 21-23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions to 25% 02, 03 and 11-15 UT at Brisbane,
11-20 UT at Canberra and Sydney, and 02-05 and 15-17
UT at Hobart. Sporadic E observed mostly 00-04, 12-16
and 20-23 UT. Some night spread F observed at Brisbane
and Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions to 30% at Macquarie Is., 13-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs likely if solar flux/activity decreases.
Sporadic E may affect F region communications at times, mostly
during daylight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 59100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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