[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 21 10:53:36 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0727UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    0749UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.8    1100UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.4    1755UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              84/26              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate. 
Region 1041 was the source of four M-class events with M1.0 at 
0727UT, M1.6 at 0749UT, M1.8 at 1059UT and M3.4 at 1755UT along 
with numerous C-class flares. The solar wind speed increased 
from 330km/s at 0000UT to be ~510km/s at the time of this report. 
Solar wind parameters indicate the increase most likely due to 
a co-rotating interaction region. The Interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component ranged between +8nT and -16nT with sustained 
southward periods between 11UT and 22UT. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with continued C-class 
and occasional M-class events. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22123433
      Darwin              12   21113434
      Townsville          10   21123333
      Learmonth           13   -3123433
      Canberra             5   10002332
      Hobart               9   -1113333
      Casey(Ant)          16   -3333433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 21Jan-22Jan.
Quiet conditions are expected for 23Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
22 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for all regions 
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions during local night 
for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions with variable conditions 
during local day. Continued sporadic E for Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Mostly normal HF conditons expected for all regions over the 
next 24 hours with continued enhanced periods for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions. Possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions 
due to slight increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal 
HF conditions for 22Jan-23Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    29500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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