[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 22 10:51:22 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. Region
1041 produced three C-class flares with C4.9 at 0120UT, C2.3
at 0354UT and C1.2 at 1049UT. The solar wind speed decreased
from ~520km/s at 0000UT to be ~440km/s at the time of this report.
The Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between
+/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Moderate for the next 3 days as Region 1041 remains magnetically
complex and capable of with further C-class and possible M-class
events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22322111
Darwin 4 21212011
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 5 -3211002
Canberra 2 11221000
Hobart 5 22321101
Casey(Ant) 10 --422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 14 1010 2544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 7 Quiet
24 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
22Jan and mostly Quiet conditions expected for 23Jan to 24Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF propagation conditions observed for
all regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions during
local night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions with variable
conditions during local day. Continued sporadic E for Southern
AUS/NZ regions along with variable conditions during local day.
Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions expected for all regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 75500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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