[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 20 10:45:50 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    1341UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.7    2036UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate. 
New region 1041 appeared on the east limb (S27) and is either 
returning region 1039 or a new region close by. Region 1041 was 
the source of two M-class flares, M2.3 at 1341UT and M1.7 at 
2035UT along with numerous C-class events. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 350km/s and 330km/s over the UT day. Solar wind 
speed is expected to increase in the next 24 hours due to the 
expected arrival of a high speed coronal hole windstream. The 
Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between +5nT 
and -1nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for 
the next 3 days with continued C-class events and the chance 
of M-class events. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110111
      Darwin               3   20110112
      Townsville           2   21100111
      Learmonth            2   20010101
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               2   11110101
      Casey(Ant)           6   -3221112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase in the next 24 hours 
with a anticipated increase in the solar wind speed due to coronal 
hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 20Jan 
with isolated Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are 
expected for 21Jan-22Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
21 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
22 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for all regions 
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions during local night 
and some depressed periods during local day for Northern AUS 
and Equatorial regions. Continued notable sporadic E for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal HF conditons expected for all regions 
over the next 24 hours with possible disturbed conditions for 
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity. 
Mostly normal ionospheric support for 21Jan-22Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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