[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 19 10:57:27 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. Region
1040 was the source of two B class flares with a B7.5 at 0330UT
and B8.4 at 0554UT. A C4.9 flare was observed at 2039UT, possibly
from region 1040 as it has since rotated off the west limb. The
solar wind speed ranged between 350km/s and 320km/s over the
UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain around this
level till 20Jan when an increase is expected due to a coronal
hole being in geo-effective position. The Interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +5nT and -3nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance
of an isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 23212211
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 5 12212212
Learmonth 6 22222211
Canberra 2 02101100
Hobart 6 13212211
Casey(Ant) 11 34322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 11 Unsettled
21 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
generally Quiet at all latitudes for 19Jan. On 20Jan an expected
increase in the solar wind speed is expected bringing Unsettled
conditions with isolated cases of Active conditions for high
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for low to mid latitudes.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 21Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs observed tobe at near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic E was noted through out the Australian region with
particularly strong cases detected at Canberra and Sydney stations through
out the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditons expected for all regions
over the next 24 hours. Increase in geomagnetic activity on 20Jan
could bring disturbed conditions for high latidues and depressed
periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 30200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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