[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 16 10:48:46 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: AR1040 produced C1-class and B8-class x-ray flares
over the last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from this region
with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days
due to its simple magnetic configuration. The solar wind ranged
between 480 to 380 km/s and is presently 420 km/s. Expect the solar
wind to remain in this range or slightly below for the next three
days. The Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between
+/-4nT. The SOHO C3 imagery shows a CME in progress on the east limb
first observed on the 1015UT image. STEREO Behind EUVI images do not
show any active regions on the east limb. CME is slow moving and not
expected to be geo-effective. The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated
and is expected to remain so until the active regions rotate around
the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 4 22101122
Learmonth 4 11111222
Canberra 1 01000111
Hobart 5 21201222
Casey(Ant) 9 2-312233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 2 Quiet
17 Jan 2 Quiet
18 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet mid to low latitudes and
Quiet to Unsettled at polar latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Expect the geomagnetic field to become generally Quiet at all
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region with particularly strong case detected at Hobart
station.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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