[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 15 10:06:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: AR1040 produced several B-class x-ray flares over the
last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from this region with
a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days
due to its simple magnetic configuration at this time. The solar
wind declined from 530 to 450 km/s and is expected to continue
to decline to just under 400 km/s over the next three days. The
Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between +/-2nT.
The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected to
remain so until the active regions rotate around the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 4 21022121
Learmonth 3 11122011
Canberra 2 10021010
Hobart 5 22122111
Casey(Ant) 9 -3322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 4 Quiet
16 Jan 2 Quiet
17 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet at mid to low latitudes and
Quiet to Unsettled at polar latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Expect the geomagnetic field to become generally Quiet at all
latitudes over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region with particularly strong case detected at Hobart
station.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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