[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 14 10:33:29 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    91/36              90/34              87/30

COMMENT: AR1040 only produced one B-class x-ray flare over the 
last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from this region with 
a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days 
due to its simple magnetic configuration at this time. The solar 
wind ranged between 420 and 540 km/s and is presently around 
500 km/s. Expect the solar wind to subside as the coronal hole 
moves from its geo-effective position. The Interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component ranged between +/-5nT, however was mostly 
southerly. The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected 
to remain so until the active regions rotate around the west 
limb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32222212
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           7   32222212
      Learmonth            7   22123212
      Canberra             4   22111211
      Hobart               7   22222222
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--33322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1200 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     6    Quiet 
15 Jan     4    Quiet 
16 Jan     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at mid to low 
latitudes and Quiet to Active at polar latitudes over the last 
24 hours most likely due to a slightly southerly Bz component 
of the IMF resulting in weak reconnection with the geomagnetic 
field. Expect the geomagnetic field to become generally Quiet 
unless the Bz component of IMF remains southward for prolong 
periods and then expect unsettled conditions to prevail with 
isolated periods of active levels at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Jan     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan     3    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values, 
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly 
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the 
Australian region with particularly strong cases detected at 
Brisbane and Hobart stations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    71300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list