[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 13 10:15:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 93/38 93/38 90/34
COMMENT: AR1040 produced a B-class and C-class X-ray flare over
the last 24 hours. Expect more B-class flares from this region
with a moderate chance for C-class flares over the next three
days. The solar wind decreased from 500 to 420 km/s over the
last 24 hours due to a recurrent coronal hole. Expect the solar
wind to subside as the coronal hole moves from its geo-effective
position. The Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged
between +/-4nT. The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and
is expected to remain so until the active regions rotate around
the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Darwin 6 12211123
Townsville 4 12210122
Learmonth 5 22211122
Canberra 2 01100021
Hobart 4 12210122
Casey(Ant) 10 3--31232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0222 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 6 Quiet
14 Jan 4 Quiet
15 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at mid to low
latitudes and Quiet to Active at polar latitudes over the last
24 hours due to an increase in the solar wind speed. Expect the
geomagnetic field to become generally Quiet with periods of unsettled
conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region with particularly strong cases detected at
Canberra and Hobart stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 98200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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