[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 12 10:52:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: AR1040 produced numerous B-class X-ray flares over the
last 24 hours. Expect more B-class flares from this region with
a moderate chance for a C-class flare over the next three days.
The solar wind increased from 300 to 550 km/s over the last day
due to a recurrent coronal hole which has strengthen since last
rotation and is presently just under 500 km/s. Interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged between -10 and 10 nT, however
only a brief period was in the -10nT range. The GOES backgound
x-ray flux is elevated and is expected to remain so until the
active regions rotate around the west limb.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0825UT
on 11 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 12332222
Darwin 9 22332222
Townsville 7 12332112
Learmonth 8 12332222
Canberra 4 02222101
Hobart 10 13333212
Casey(Ant) 15 3---3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at mid to low
latitudes and Quiet to Active at polar latitudes over the last
24 hours due to an increase in the solar wind speed. Expect these
conditions to prevail over the next two days, 12 and 13 January
afterwards the solar wind is expected to return to normal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 32100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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