[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 11 10:34:16 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: AR1040 has numerous spots and a stable magnetic
configuration. 
It issued numerous B-class X-ray flares today. Expect more B-class 
flares from this region with slight chance for a C-class x-ray 
flare over the next three days. The solar wind was low to moderate 
at 280-320 km/s and is expected to remain in this range or slightly 
above for the next two days. IMF Bz was mildly negative, less 
than -5nT, from 07-14UT, conducive to merging with the geomagntic 
field. The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected 
to remain so until the active regions rotate around the west 
limb. A recurrent coronal hole will reach its geo-effective position 
on 12 Jan and the solar wind is expect to reach close to 400 
km/s by the end of the UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21221212
      Darwin               4   11211212
      Townsville           5   21211212
      Learmonth            6   21221311
      Canberra             1   00110111
      Hobart               4   11221211
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     4    Quiet 
12 Jan     6    Quiet 
13 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet at mid-latitudes and Unsettled 
at polar latitudes early in the day due to IMF Bz south (see 
Solar section). The field should remain generally Quiet in the 
absence of extended IMF Bz southward periods. Expect Unsettled 
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes 
due to an increase in the solar wind speed 12 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values, 
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly 
AR1040, on the Sun. Sporadic E was noted through out the Australian 
region. Near-equatorial sites had high MUF variability, probably 
due to thermospheric winds and ionospheric electric fields, as 
the geomagnetic activity was Quiet. Expect the solar active regions 
to sustain ionisation and MUFs for several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    25800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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