[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 10 10:05:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low to Low Very low to Low Very low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 86/29 88/32
COMMENT: AR1040 has 6 spots and a stable magnetic configuration
as reported by San Vito Solar Observatory at 1100UT 9 Jan. Expect
more B-class flares from this region with slight chance for a
C-class x-ray flare over the next three days. The solar wind
speed ranged between 300 and 270 km/s and is expected to remain
in this range or slightly above for the next three days. The
GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected to remain
elevated until the active regions rotate around the west limb.
A recurrent coronal hole will reach its geo-effective position
on 12 Jan and the solar wind is expect to reach close to 400
km/s by the end of the UT day on 12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 2 11110111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11210101
Casey(Ant) 8 33311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0010 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 2 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
12 Jan 6 Quiet. Isolated unsettled to active periods at
higher
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field should remain generally Quiet in the
absence of extended IMF Bz southward periods. Expect unsettled
to active levels of geomagnetic activity at higher latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed on 12 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
probably due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions
on the sun. Sporadic E was noted through out the Australian region
particularly in the daylight hours. Noted blanketing Es around
the Hobart station during late night and early morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 33100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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