[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 9 10:09:14 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: AR1040 (previously AR1035) was reported with 5 spots
and has a stable magnetic configuration at this time and is not
expected to produce anything greater than B-class x-ray flares.
Previously Boulder numbered regions 1036 and 1038 are trailing
by about 40 degrees and should be rotating on to the solar disc
later today. AR1036 was an emerging flux region last rotation
and may produce an occasional C-class xray flare over the next
three days. The solar wind speed ranged between 280 and 330 km/s
and is expected to remain in this range for the next three days.
The GOES backgound x-ray flux is elevated and is expected to
remain elevated until the active regions rotate around the west
limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 21110001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11110100
Casey(Ant) 8 3--21---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 2 Quiet
10 Jan 2 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field should remain generally Quiet in the
absence of extended IMF Bz southward periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
probably due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions
on the sun. Weak sporadic E was noted through out the Australian
region and blanketing Es was noted in Sydney and Canberra stations
between 01-04 UT 07 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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