[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 8 10:45:11 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: AR1040 newly rotated onto the east limb did not issue
any X-ray flares today. It is the lead region in a group that
are visible to the the STEREO-B spacecraft, and about to rotate
onto the visible disc in the next few days. Some of these may
be returning regions AR1036 (due 8th Jan) that was growing last
transit and AR1038 (due 8th Jan). Solar wind dropped from moderate
320 to a low 280 km/s. IMF Bz component was mostly northwards,
not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field but fluctating
north-south from 15UT which may be geoeffective. The STEREO-B
spacecraft observed a -5nT Bz on 6th Jan that is assumed to be
a co-rotating structure in the solar wind, expected at Earth
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 3 21111---
Learmonth 3 22010020
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11100011
Casey(Ant) 9 33-31122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 3 Quiet
09 Jan 6 Quiet
10 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: onal geomagnetic field at mid-latitudes was Quiet due
to the moderate solar wind speeds and lack of sustained (>12hrs)
southward. Polar cap was Unsettled to Active early in the UT
day from a moderate southwards -4nT IMF Bz but otherwise Quiet.
A small-medium coronal hole is on the eastern side of the visible
disc and STEREO-B spacecraft observed a -5nT Bz 6th January that
is assumed to be a co-rotating structure in the solar wind, expected
at Earth ~9-10Jan (UT) with associated geomagnetic disturbances.
Geomagnetic field should remain generally Quiet in the absence
of extended IMF Bz southward periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
probably due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from the new AR1040.
Other active regions can be seen by the STEREO-B spacecraft,
rotating earthward (see solar section), and should add more extra
ionising flux in the next few days, sustaining MUFs near the
predicted monthly average and countering the interhemispheric
(south-north) winds that remove ionisation to the winter hemisphere.
Variability returned after a lull yesterday, especially at
near-equatorial
latitudes. Extensive sporadic E was again observed across Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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