[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 4 10:38:22 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: A number of B- and minor C-class flares were observed
today. There is a possibility of further C-class flare activity
from AR1039. Minor variability observed in solar wind parameters
with the BZ component of the IMF sustaining moderate southward
polarity over the first half of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 2 111110--
Townsville 5 21------
Learmonth 7 22133201
Canberra 3 111220--
Hobart 4 12211111
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 3 Quiet
05 Jan 3 Quiet
06 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Minor variability in solar wind parameters observed
again today. The regional geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled
at high latitudes and quiet at low to mid latitudes with a brief
unsettled interval during the mid part of the UT day. Expect
generally quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Significant MUF variability observed over the region
today. Recurrence and continuing low solar activity suggests
possible occasional MUF depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly Equatorial/N
Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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