[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 3 10:22:27 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: A number of B- and two C-class flares were observed
today. There is a possibility of further C-class flare activity
from AR1039.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 5 21221122
Learmonth 4 21122101
Canberra 0 00110000
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0031
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 3 Quiet
04 Jan 3 Quiet
05 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Minor variability in solar wind parameters observed
again today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained moderately northward for much of the UT day. Regional
geomagnetic conditions were briefly unsettled at the end of the
UT day Jan 01, and remained quiet for the UT day Jan 02. Expect
generally quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed at Sydney
and Canberra. Recurrence and continuing low solar activity suggests
possible occasional MUF depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly Equatorial/N
Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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