[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 5 10:44:41 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: AR1039 produced nine B-class and one C-class flare today.
There is a possibility of further C-class flare activity from
AR1039 which will be on the visible solar disc for another 5
days. Solar wind decreased from moderate 320km/s to 260km/s at
12UT but is now returning towards 320km/s near 00UT. No significant
coronal hole high speed solar wind expected for several days.
IMF Bz component mostly near zero or northwards, except for brief
-5nT south near 06UT, generally not conducive to merging with
the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21221012
Darwin 4 22210012
Townsville 5 11221122
Learmonth 4 22221011
Canberra 1 10110001
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0112 2000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 3 Quiet
06 Jan 2 Quiet
07 Jan 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at mid-latitudes was
Quiet due to the low-moderate solar wind speeds and lack of sustained
southward or strongly varying IMF Bz. High-latitudes were Quiet
to Unsettled with a brief Active period in the polar cap ~07UT
due to a brief IMF south Bz of -5nT. No significant coronal holes
are on the visible disc, so no high speed solar wind expected
for several days and the geomagnetic field should remain generally
Quiet in the absence of extended IMF Bz southward periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs remain moderately depressed compared with predicted
monthly values, presumably due to summer seasonal interhemispheric
(south to north) winds and lack of compensating ionising EUV
and X-ray flux from solar sunspot groups despite the B and C
flares from AR 1039. Moderate variability observed over mid-latitudes
but high variability as usual at northern sub-equatorial latitudes
from winds and electric fields as geomagnetic activity is low.
Recurrence, lack of new solar active regions on the visible disc
suggests continuing MUF depressions of 10 to 20%, mainly at
Equatorial/N
Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 56100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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