[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 19 10:34:22 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 370 and 390 km/s until around 
0500UT, then increased to 450 km/s by mid-day and then stayed 
near this value for the remaining part of the UT day. The 
north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed positve upto +5nT 
by 1000UT, then showed fluctuations between +/-5nT and then 
turned positive around 1900UT. Bz stayed positive for the 
remaining part of the day. Solar wind stream may remain slightly 
strengthened on 19 February due to a recurrent pattern. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122221
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           7   22122321
      Learmonth            5   11122221
      Canberra             2   10011210
      Hobart               6   11122321
      Casey(Ant)           9   2-332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2200 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Feb     6    Quiet 
21 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to 
unsettled levels over the UT day today with isolated 
active periods recorded at some high latitude stations. 
Activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels on 19 February and then gradually decline to quiet 
levels for the following two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
on 18 February. Sporadic-E was observed on low and some mid 
latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be 
expected for most locations for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor degradations at high latitudes 
on 19 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Feb    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    38    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                20%. 
20 Feb    42    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
21 Feb    42    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region 
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days for most parts of this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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