[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 20 10:33:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 420 and 480 km/s during 
the UT day today. The north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed 
mostly positive upto +5nT. Isolated periods of negative Bz were 
also observed between 1000 and 1400UT and again around 1900UT. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled conditions. 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112121
      Darwin               4   21111122
      Townsville           5   21112122
      Learmonth            4   21012130
      Canberra             2   12001011
      Hobart               4   21112121
      Casey(Ant)           9   --332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0000 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     4    Quiet 
21 Feb     4    Quiet 
22 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels with 
isolated unsettled periods over the UT day today. Activity is 
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations on 
19 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Feb    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
21 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
22 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region 
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days for most parts of this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    99400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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