[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 18 10:38:06 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              86/29
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low  over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed mostly  between 340 and 380 km/s 
during the UT day today. The north-south component Bz of 
the IMF gradually turned from -5nT around the beginning 
of the UT day to positive values around  0500UT. Bz stayed 
mostly close to the normal values  for most  parts  of the 
remaining  day. Solar  wind  stream  may  remain  slightly 
strengthened on 18 and 19 February due to a recurrent pattern. 
Solar activity is expected  to stay at very low levels for 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               2   21100012
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            4   21010023
      Canberra             1   10000002
      Hobart               4   22111112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   4233 0103     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     7    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
20 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT:  Geomagnetic activity  was mostly at quiet to 
unsettled levels over the UT day  today with  isolated 
active periods recorded at some high latitude stations. 
Activity is expected to  remain  mostly  at  quiet  to 
unsettled levels  on  18 February  and  then gradually 
decline to quiet levels for the following two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
on 17 February. Strong  sporadic-E  was observed on low and 
some mid latitude locations.  Nearly similar HF  conditions  
may be expected for most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Feb    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    29    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                15%. 
19 Feb    31    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                20%. 
20 Feb    31    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                20%. 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region 
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted 
monthly  values  or  slightly  enhanced.  Nearly  similar 
conditions may be expected for the next three days for most 
parts of this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    54500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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