[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 17 10:54:11 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1046(N20W49) and 1048(N21E34) are decaying. Solar wind
speed stayed mostly between 320 and 360 km/s during the UT day
today. The north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed
between +/-5 nT for most parts of the day. Solar wind stream
may remain strengthened on 17 and 18 February due to a recurrent
pattern. There is some chance for region 1048 to produce C-class
flare. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low to low
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled on most locations, isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 32221222
Darwin 5 22210113
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 7 32121222
Canberra 3 21110012
Hobart 6 32220212
Casey(Ant) 9 3--21223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 3312 1244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 9 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
18 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
19 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels over the UT day today with isolated active periods
recorded at some high latitude stations. Activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two
days with some possibility of isolated active periods on high
latitude locations on 17 February. A decline to mostly quiet
in activity level is expected on 19 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 16 February with presence of strong sporadic E at times
on low latitude locations. Minor degradations on high
latitudes in HF conditions may be possible on 17 February,
otherwise mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for
most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly normal with some periods of depression.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 23 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 27 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted
monthly values or slightly enhanced. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days for most part of
this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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