[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 14 10:53:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Active
region(AR) 1046(N24W11) and AR 1048(N23E90) produced the C-class
flare activity during the last 24 hours. Active regions 1045(N24W73),
1046, 1048 are all likely to produce B and C class flares over
the next three days. However, AR 1045 will be less significant
as it rotates around the western limb. AR 1046 has a moderate
chance of producing another M class flare over the next three
days due to its magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). The solar wind
ranged from 350 to 310 km/s and is presently at around 310 km/s.
It is expected to remain in this range on 14 and 15 February
based on recurrence data of previous solar rotation, although
evidence of a plasma cloud passing the near Earth environment
may be picked up with the ACE instrumentation on 15 February
due to the CME which occurred on 12 February. On 16 February
the solar wind is expected to pick up to 500 km/s due to a co-rotating
interaction region. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-6nT over the last 24 hours, however there
were two periods of prolong southward Bz between 0030-0330UT
and 1400-1900UT which resulted in weak reconnection with the
Earth's magnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Darwin 3 21100122
Townsville 4 11201122
Learmonth 4 21101222
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 3 12101121
Casey(Ant) 9 33-31222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1320 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 6 Quiet
15 Feb 6 Quiet
16 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with isolated periods of Unsettled to Minor storm levels at high
latitudes due to weak reconnection. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
over the next two days and quiet to active conditions on 16 February
with isolated cases of minor storm levels at high latitudes due
to an increase in the solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12 February
and is current for interval 13-15 February (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced.
There is a slight chance of possible fades in the sunlit hemisphere
throughout the next three days. Otherwise expect mostly normal
or slightly enhanced HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly
values. Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian
and Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 39700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list