[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 15 10:54:44 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was low over the the last 24 hours. Active
region(AR) 1048(N20E64) produced a C-class flare at 1204 UT today.
Active regions 1046(N24W23) and 1048(N20E64) are likely to produce
B and C class flares over the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-flare. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 to
320 km/s and is presently at around 320 km/s. The north south
component Bz of the IMF stayed between +/-5 nT until around 2000UT
and then turned south to around -10 nT and is staying there since
then. Solar wind stream may get strengthened from 15 to 17 February
due to the effect of a CME that was observed on 12 February and
due to a recurrent pattern possibly due to a corotating interaction
region. Solar activity is expected to stay at low to moderate
levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21113012
Darwin 5 21113012
Townsville 5 11113122
Learmonth 4 21112012
Canberra 1 00002001
Hobart 4 11113012
Casey(Ant) 11 33-33122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible.
16 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible.
17 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over
the UT day today. A activity level may increase from 15 to 17
February due to the expected arrival of a CME on 15 February
and a recurrent pattern on 16 and possibly 17 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations on
14 February. Minor to moderate degradations on low and mid latitudes
and moderate to significant degradations at high latitudes in
HF conditions may be possible for the next three days as geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12 February
and is current for interval 13-15 February (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced.
Some depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be possible for the next three days due expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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