[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 13 10:40:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.3 1126UT probable lower European
M1.1 1809UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar Activity was High over the the last 24 hours.
Active region 1045 (N22W64) produced an M1.1 class x-ray flare
at 12/1808UT with associated 2F H-alpha flare. Active region
1046 (N23W02) produced an M8.3 class x-ray flare at 12/1126UT
with an associated 1N H-alpha flare and several C-class flares.
Both regions are likely to produce B and C class flares over
the next three days. AR region 1045 is approaching the west limb
and will be rotating around the west limb in three days time.
AR 1046 has a moderate chance of producing another M class flare
over the next three days. The solar wind ranged from 400 to 320
km/s and is presently at approximately 350 km/s. It is expected
to remain in this range until late in the UT day 13 February
when it is expected to elevate slightly due to a recurrent coronal.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
southward and varied between +5/-6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 4 22201112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 4 22111112
Canberra 2 12101000
Hobart 6 23212111
Casey(Ant) 8 33-22212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with isolated periods of Unsettled to Actived levels at high
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the
next two days due to recurrent coronal hole with isolated cases
of Active to Minor storm levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly
values or slightly enhanced. There is a slight chance of possible
fades in the sunlit hemisphere throughout the next three days.
Otherwise expect mostly normal or slightly enhanced HF conditions
with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Noted isolated cases
of sporadic E in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 23400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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